Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 215.944318 257.226843 306.579841 370.616937 452.524350 555.184628 6.958625e+02
2025-10-12 172.528344 223.961915 292.798188 394.200327 544.316579 766.214156 1.135251e+03
2025-10-19 145.882701 201.092137 281.186701 410.912796 626.354451 991.788021 1.714974e+03
2025-10-26 126.642477 182.735439 269.356150 420.738119 697.468281 1227.089653 2.460930e+03
2025-11-02 111.311537 166.555855 256.269627 423.255886 754.690374 1461.439750 3.385068e+03
2025-11-09 97.638232 150.318280 239.352229 413.768419 784.574404 1653.065194 4.380629e+03
2025-11-16 86.720280 136.781166 224.336439 403.699680 809.246695 1845.477975 5.589859e+03
2025-11-23 77.706613 125.137780 210.589666 392.670202 827.819634 2033.296842 7.031146e+03
2025-11-30 75.198597 124.530194 217.053758 425.223930 963.387029 2642.628148 1.128862e+04
2025-12-07 70.077994 118.413741 211.764364 430.445594 1030.642243 3088.744151 1.584571e+04
2025-12-14 66.228977 114.167873 209.500456 442.160758 1121.658461 3700.977906 2.353869e+04
2025-12-21 61.717499 108.087337 202.476528 440.597651 1172.703655 4204.556334 3.268484e+04
2025-12-28 60.506073 108.552408 209.924871 479.257208 1378.370399 5686.099002 6.440855e+04
2026-01-04 58.690749 107.570365 214.062782 510.683845 1580.549128 7504.169969 1.314109e+05
2026-01-11 56.435921 105.377711 215.046782 533.664005 1767.397839 9624.555282 2.774513e+05
2026-01-18 53.845182 102.149473 213.042305 547.304525 1926.661266 11951.041470 6.054809e+05
2026-01-25 50.986013 98.012022 208.181246 550.807723 2044.955099 14288.882593 1.349595e+06
2026-02-01 47.626360 92.419219 198.890217 537.585974 2075.884253 15895.730871 2.672906e+06
2026-02-08 44.561963 87.213563 189.942358 523.585311 2097.427811 17545.916606 5.779582e+06
2026-02-15 41.737097 82.304785 181.168492 508.284845 2105.352822 19139.100887 1.379084e+07
2026-02-22 41.542991 83.471323 188.686352 553.551786 2500.527241 28559.268518 1.170607e+09
2026-03-01 39.904434 81.060900 186.131497 560.842504 2672.272362 35472.579450 NaN
2026-03-08 38.685467 79.543502 185.871791 577.229020 2925.294479 46695.329141 NaN